Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 29, 2024

Today was Good Friday, which is an international holiday. NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 24916 and is trading up about 3.44% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been declining for 2 years going into 2024 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 3 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 24820 and overhead resistance forming above at 25050. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 18th at 25975, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is has moved to the downside penetrating last week's low of 24580 reaching 24445. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25975 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21985 and 25137. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 18th reaching 25975 has exceeded the previous high of 23445 made back during the week of January 29th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 26340. After a nine month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for nine months. However, this market is weak retesting important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 21975 reaching 22710.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22263 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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