S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 29, 2024

This market continues to make new historical highs. The last critical cyclical low was Fri. Oct. 27, 2023, which was 109 trading sessions ago. The S&P 500 Cash Index has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 109 days.

Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but percentage wise, it is trading only marginally higher less than 1%. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 529556, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 529510 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 524582 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 524609.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 25th at 526485, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 526485 to 520342. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 526485. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 525228 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 12 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 438504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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