Alternative Path

[gdl]

I have 2 possible Fibonacci sequences ahead. This can determine either a 3-month decent drop or the start of a really nasty super cycle downturn.

If it is only a 3 month drop it should start around the end of August 2024 and finish at end of November. If we start the drop earlier in late June it would possibly signal a truncated final super cycle bull has ended and the multi-decade long plunge to have started.

I base this on Fibonacci number and where I started is arbitrary at the last major low in October. 2022. Since we can't determine what lows or highs constituted the start of a new long-term reversal TILL we trace it in hindsight, I base my assumption on the dangerous times we are facing today indicating a near ending phase.

My urge to get to the crash stage has aways gotten me in trouble. I must "see" the alternative paths and give them credence.

Scenario ONE: A "normal" corrective phase at end of August thru end of November makes perfect sense since the angst of an election result will be over.
Scenario TWO: A more permanent top in 2024 has to start at end of June and MUST have a crash component in the slide.

I don't have a clue which is which but logically a "normal;" 3 month drop in election timeframe makes more sense and with it no crash but extended into 2025 instead.