Alternative Path

[gdl]

We have had only a 4 day drop consecutively once since 10/23. That resulted on a shallow but technical wave down. Today has to close higher or it might be another distinct wave down. Seems likely it is NOT and therefore a continued drive higher near term is assured. The all-important core PCE price index YoY tomorrow. We had a double top in early 22 and 23 and has since steadily dropped. From 5 percent to 2.8 percent. This is the REAL REASON the market keeps driving higher. And rightly so. Disinflation keeps borrowing costs low and payment against those loans profitable for all. We would need a multi month drive higher and in a decidedly breakout fashion for this market to accept such a long-term change in inflation.

Without a spike up and a following hold to that spike we should stay in this extraordinary bull mode. Before the open tomorrow we get a clue if there is a possible change to the long trend down. It is THE number ONE data point the street looks to.