SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[imiloa]

meanwhile, SPY 520...
i've been waylaid by chaos the past few weeks
and not able to watch markets closely.

def not surprising that the powers that be
have pumped this so high.

but shiller reveals current SPY P/E of 35
as the 3rd highest level in market history,
beaten only by the peak before 2000 dotcom crash
and july 2021, aka: peak covid mortality rate,
amid covid "delta" wave.

current level is notably higher than
the peak before the 1929 crash
which induced the "great depression" of the 1930s.

of course, much has changed since 1929,
including USD fiat currency manip
after leaving the gold standard in 1973.

and, theoretically,
the current AI tech bubble will fair better
than the dotcom tech bubble,
given AI implementation is still in the toddler phase,
meaning considerable growth potential ahead,
which could justify current NVDA, AMD, ARM, etc...
pricing within a couple years.

but still seems prudent to remember
that current S&P pricing presumes
35x S&P earnings growth
over the current earnings
at a time when our planet
couldn't sustain 35x population growth
nor 35x product production.

even if NVDA et alia might achieve 35x growth
over the next decade or two,
seems unlikely the entire USA economy
can grow 35x from current levels?

especially with climate change
gradually eroding infrastructure
via ramping extreme weather.

all that ranted,
it's been clear since the dotcom adventure
that too much exuberance is never enough.

and with modern trading dominated by algo bots
intent primarily on targeted price movements
regardless of underlying fundamental value,
SPY could run to 1000+
with no regard to whether corp earnings
justified such pricing.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe