Meirluc,
What you say may have some truth, but after UK approval I really don't believe the market cap can be held under at least a few billion dollars. right now we're under $600 million so I believe we'd be no less than 4 to 5 times our current price, and that's at the lowest.
With the right attention from the media, we could get into a feeding frenzy where people who've never heard of NWBO want in at any price. I've seen that sort of thing happen before and frankly with the right news, it could happen again. I have friends that would never buy NWBO at under a dollar, but if they wanted it at $5 or $10 they wouldn't hesitate because of the price. I believe that with the right news a sustained price of $10 is possible, taking our market cap to $12 billion or so, but it's doubtful a price above that could be sustained, and even that price would only be sustainable based on the picture being painted for NWBO of its future.tors
Certainly far more than $10 is justified on earnings once we have approval from all the regulators. It may take a little time to get there, but after all regulators have approved earnings in billions will easily be justified, and tens to hundreds of billions as the vaccine's proven to be tumor agnostic and should be used with many solid cancers is very possible. Perhaps as important will be the justified P/E which I believe should be 30 or more with earnings growing dramatically with each financial report. If we're only looking at $2 billion in earnings that's a market cap of $60 billion. Even if our share count rises to 2 billion it's still $30 a share. Depending on when we gain all regulatory approvals, I believe earning $2 billion won't take more than a year or two, that could put it in 2025 or 2026. Of course a partner buying in for double digit billions for a sizable position could accelerate the price substantially more.
Much of this has to do with perception, if we're perceived to have the potential of explosive growth, which I believe is a fair picture as long as tumor agnostic is where we appear to be going, the price can go higher. If it goes substantially above $10 on UK approval alone I'd probably set trailing stop losses and keep them a few dollars below the current price for at least some of my shares. I have friends who tell me I should sell at $2 at least enough to get my money out, I say why? Why take my money out when I still believe the stock is the best investment on the board. I'd say the same thing at $10, $20 or more. Why take money out if you don't need it, and don't have a better place to invest it. I know stocks retrench substantial parts of big gains, so if I sell based on placing trailing stop losses I'd look for the right price to buy back in after I believe the stock has fully retrenched, typically 30% to 50% of the gain. I'm hoping that by the time we're in double digits we're also on the option market. If that's the case I intend to write covered calls slightly out of the money when we've made a really large gain. I'd rather make spending money by writing covered calls than buying and selling shares. Of course this is in the future, but perhaps not more than a year or so into the future.
I hope I'm wrong and that with share prices in the $10's or more that most of us still maintain our positions, but it's rare that rapidly growing companies at prices like that aren't majority owned by Institutions. Certainly Institutions will take any new offerings from the company at that time, but to gain majority ownership, many of us will have to sell them our shares, and I suspect many will sell out, they'll be very wealthy, but can they truly find a better place to put their money. I'm certainly willing to sell at least some of my shares if I really have a better place to invest it, including the tax hit I'd take by selling. If my kids inherit my shares, they get them at a new basis and don't have a tax burden, unless the laws change. I can live very well by writing covered calls and never selling a single share, but only on a small percentage of my total holdings. Of course this money is purely for luxuries, our retirement annuities allow us to live well without the added income.
Gary
