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Saturday, March 23, 2024 10:44:44 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 23, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 194.2k, down 45.7k.
Yet again, equity bears failed to cash in on an opening the markets offered them. Leading up to this week’s FOMC meeting and after a rip-roaring rally from last October’s low, the S&P 500 suffered marginal weekly declines back-to-back, forming candles with long upper shadows (more on this here).
Undeterred, bulls this week began the first two sessions with decent gains, which got further amplified post-FOMC – on Wednesday and Thursday. For the week, the large cap index added 2.3 percent to 5234 – 17th up week in 21. From last October’s low through Thursday’s fresh high of 5261, it surged 28.2 percent!
Overbought, yes, but the upside momentum is yet to decisively break. A rising trend line from last October has been defended. For several sessions before Wednesday’s mini-breakout, bulls struggled at 5170s, which is now the one to watch if it holds.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 11.2k, up 9.8k.
The Nasdaq 100 jumped three percent to 18339 this week, rallying back above a rising trend line from last October’s low, albeit only marginally. Last week, the trendline was slightly breached.
That said, the tech-heavy index has essentially gone sideways this month, having printed 18333 on the 1st. A new intraday high of 18465 was reached on Thursday but the session acted tentative, to say the least.
At 17719 lies the 50-day, coinciding with the daily lower Bollinger band at 17758. This is a must-save for the bulls.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 13.5k, down 5.6k.
It was one of those weeks! The Russell 2000 had something to offer for both bulls and bears. The small cap index rallied 1.6 percent to 2072 but also got rejected – once again – at 2100.
On the 8th, a two-year high of 2116 completed a measured-move target of a 1700-1900 range breakout on December 13th. To boot, horizontal resistance at 2100 goes back to January 2021. This ceiling was tested again this week, with Thursday tagging 2106 and retreating.
For small-cap bulls’ consolation, 2000 continued to attract bids, as the index touched 2010 on Tuesday. Until this 100-point back-and-forth resolves one way or the other, range traders will have a field day. A likely breach ahead opens the door toward a breakout retest at 1900.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 679, down 5.5k.
A golden cross, in which the 50-day crosses the 200-day from below, formed this week. If the pattern lives up to its expectations, better days lie ahead for the dollar.
The US Dollar Index this week jumped 1.1 percent to 104.18. Resistance at 103-104 goes back to December 2016.
For now, dollar bulls are probably eyeing the February 14th high of 104.88. Momentum is with them. Since defending lateral support at 1.0230s on the 8th, the index has rallied in eight of 10 sessions.
VIX: Currently net short 44.8k, down 4.3k.
Rather ominously for volatility bulls, a rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81 was compromised this week. Concurrently, on both Thursday and Friday, the volatility index produced potentially bullish hammers, which showed up right at/just underneath the daily lower Bollinger band. Thursday’s intraday low of 12.40 was the lowest since early January.
These are mixed signals. As things stand, it is hard to imagine VIX persisting lower. Last December, the index touched 11.80s for three sessions in a row before gradually trending higher.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | March 23, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 194.2k, down 45.7k.
Yet again, equity bears failed to cash in on an opening the markets offered them. Leading up to this week’s FOMC meeting and after a rip-roaring rally from last October’s low, the S&P 500 suffered marginal weekly declines back-to-back, forming candles with long upper shadows (more on this here).
Undeterred, bulls this week began the first two sessions with decent gains, which got further amplified post-FOMC – on Wednesday and Thursday. For the week, the large cap index added 2.3 percent to 5234 – 17th up week in 21. From last October’s low through Thursday’s fresh high of 5261, it surged 28.2 percent!
Overbought, yes, but the upside momentum is yet to decisively break. A rising trend line from last October has been defended. For several sessions before Wednesday’s mini-breakout, bulls struggled at 5170s, which is now the one to watch if it holds.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 11.2k, up 9.8k.
The Nasdaq 100 jumped three percent to 18339 this week, rallying back above a rising trend line from last October’s low, albeit only marginally. Last week, the trendline was slightly breached.
That said, the tech-heavy index has essentially gone sideways this month, having printed 18333 on the 1st. A new intraday high of 18465 was reached on Thursday but the session acted tentative, to say the least.
At 17719 lies the 50-day, coinciding with the daily lower Bollinger band at 17758. This is a must-save for the bulls.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 13.5k, down 5.6k.
It was one of those weeks! The Russell 2000 had something to offer for both bulls and bears. The small cap index rallied 1.6 percent to 2072 but also got rejected – once again – at 2100.
On the 8th, a two-year high of 2116 completed a measured-move target of a 1700-1900 range breakout on December 13th. To boot, horizontal resistance at 2100 goes back to January 2021. This ceiling was tested again this week, with Thursday tagging 2106 and retreating.
For small-cap bulls’ consolation, 2000 continued to attract bids, as the index touched 2010 on Tuesday. Until this 100-point back-and-forth resolves one way or the other, range traders will have a field day. A likely breach ahead opens the door toward a breakout retest at 1900.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 679, down 5.5k.
A golden cross, in which the 50-day crosses the 200-day from below, formed this week. If the pattern lives up to its expectations, better days lie ahead for the dollar.
The US Dollar Index this week jumped 1.1 percent to 104.18. Resistance at 103-104 goes back to December 2016.
For now, dollar bulls are probably eyeing the February 14th high of 104.88. Momentum is with them. Since defending lateral support at 1.0230s on the 8th, the index has rallied in eight of 10 sessions.
VIX: Currently net short 44.8k, down 4.3k.
Rather ominously for volatility bulls, a rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81 was compromised this week. Concurrently, on both Thursday and Friday, the volatility index produced potentially bullish hammers, which showed up right at/just underneath the daily lower Bollinger band. Thursday’s intraday low of 12.40 was the lowest since early January.
These are mixed signals. As things stand, it is hard to imagine VIX persisting lower. Last December, the index touched 11.80s for three sessions in a row before gradually trending higher.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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