Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 23, 2024

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 24843 and is trading up about 3.14% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in March is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 25975 intraday and is still trading above that high of 23560.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 3 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 24920 and support forming below at 24455. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 18th at 25975, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 25975 to 24580. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25975 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21985 and 25137. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 18th reaching 25975 has exceeded the previous high of 23445 made back during the week of January 29th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 26340. After a nine month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for nine months. However, this market is weak retesting important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 21975 reaching 22710.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22263 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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