Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 23, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 21600 and is trading up about 4.25% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in March is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 22253 intraday and is still trading above that high of 20832.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 21587 and overhead resistance forming above at 21663. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 18th at 22253, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 22253 to 21492. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 22253 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 19857 and 21663. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 22253. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 21878 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 20256 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 21523. After a thirteen month rally from the previous low of 19879, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for thirteen months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 19964 reaching 20470.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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