Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[moosedogger]

Hi RMB,

I have to admit I'm mystified by this situation with AUPH.
Last year was a seeming 'no-brainer' opportunity by buying at $5 and change and letting go between $10-12. I'm not sure what to think at the moment.
Here's why it makes no sense to me:
The experts claim:
There are currently between 160K - 1.5M LN sufferers
The incidence rate of LN among SLE patients is between 50-60%
We know that the average cost to get an FDA approved drug takes years and costs $2B plus
There's a financial graveyard of LN drugs that have failed to succeed and have never made it out of the clinic.
Aurinia has probably spent $2B in total costs themselves over many years to achieve the best LN drug ever.

I find it very strange that the uptake for Lupkynis is truly pathetic as they have failed to gain any real sales traction for the best hope for patients with LN ever.
Curiouser and curiouser.

Despite the discouraging track record to date, I still can't resist continuing to nibble away on this.
Why would any Pharma take huge risks on their likely future failure LN candidate when they could simply buy this and use their marketing muscle to make it a winner?

cheers