GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 16, 2024

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 21612 and overhead resistance forming above at 21908. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 4th at 22030, which was up 3 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 3 weeks reaching a high during the week of March 4th at 20881. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 2.124% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 19964 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -77.3% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 19964 made 4 weeks. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 4th has exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 21523. After a thirteen month rally from the previous low of 19879, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for thirteen months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 19964 reaching 20470.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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