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Saturday, March 16, 2024 10:34:13 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 239.8k, up 35.4k.
Equity bears further widened a slight opening they were granted last week, when a weekly spinning top formed on the S&P 500; this was after 16 up weeks in 18. Until Tuesday this week, it did not look like they would be able to make much of it, with the large cap index ticking 5180 intraday, which was less than nine points from the March 8th all-time high of 5189. Then, the bulls began to struggle, unable to take out high-5170s Tuesday through Thursday. Friday, the 10-day was lost. For the week, the index edged lower 0.1 percent, having reversed from up 1.1 percent at Tuesday’s high.
For the second week in a row, the weekly has now produced a candle with a long upper shadow. This is taking place even as investor sentiment further rose into giddy territory (more on this here).
The upside momentum is yet to decisively break, but this is as good an opportunity as any for the bears.
Amidst this, non-commercials raised their net shorts to a 34-week high.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 1.4k, up 760.
The Nasdaq 100 acts like it is exhausted and wants lower prints (more on this here). This week, it gave back 1.2 percent to 17808. This follows last week’s loss of 1.6 percent, which came in a week in which the tech-heavy index posted a new intraday high of 18415 on Friday but only to then reverse to close at 18018.
This week, the index closed under 18000, where it struggled for three weeks before breaking out last week. It turns out the breakout was false.
At 17554 lies the 50-day, coinciding with the daily lower Bollinger band at 17538. This is a must-save for the bulls.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 19.1k, down 3.7k.
Small-cap bulls’ mettle is being tested. Last Friday’s session high of 2116 set a two-year high, which also completed a measured-move target of a 1700-1900 range breakout on December 13th. The tape has weakened since.
This week, the Russell 2000 declined 2.1 percent to 2039. But before that on both Thursday and Friday, horizontal support at 2000 drew bids, with the small cap index touching 2017 and 2019 respectively. A likely breach of this support opens the door toward a breakout retest at 1900.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 6.2k, up 3.1k.
Dollar bulls are in a mood to once again go after 103-104, which goes back to December 2016. This week, the US Dollar Index rallied 0.4 percent to 103.06, tagging 103.31 on Tuesday.
Earlier, it hit 104.88 on February 14th and retreated, bottoming at 102.30 last Friday.
Immediately ahead, the 50- and 200-day at 103.41 and 103.52 respectively can act as a magnet.
VIX: Currently net short 49.1k, up 3.2k.
Yet again, a rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81 was touched and left intact. The volatility index tagged 13.42 Thursday, piercing through the 50-day (13.79) intraday but was saved on time, ending the session at 14.40.
Come Friday, the 200-day (14.71) was reclaimed intraday but was pushed under by close, ending the week at 14.41, down 0.33 points for the week. It was one of those rare weeks when both VIX and the S&P 500 went hand in hand.
So, VIX is trapped between the 50- and 200-day, with the former rising and the latter flattish. In the current setup, it is only a matter of time before the 50-day approaches the 200-day from underneath.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | March 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 239.8k, up 35.4k.
Equity bears further widened a slight opening they were granted last week, when a weekly spinning top formed on the S&P 500; this was after 16 up weeks in 18. Until Tuesday this week, it did not look like they would be able to make much of it, with the large cap index ticking 5180 intraday, which was less than nine points from the March 8th all-time high of 5189. Then, the bulls began to struggle, unable to take out high-5170s Tuesday through Thursday. Friday, the 10-day was lost. For the week, the index edged lower 0.1 percent, having reversed from up 1.1 percent at Tuesday’s high.
For the second week in a row, the weekly has now produced a candle with a long upper shadow. This is taking place even as investor sentiment further rose into giddy territory (more on this here).
The upside momentum is yet to decisively break, but this is as good an opportunity as any for the bears.
Amidst this, non-commercials raised their net shorts to a 34-week high.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 1.4k, up 760.
The Nasdaq 100 acts like it is exhausted and wants lower prints (more on this here). This week, it gave back 1.2 percent to 17808. This follows last week’s loss of 1.6 percent, which came in a week in which the tech-heavy index posted a new intraday high of 18415 on Friday but only to then reverse to close at 18018.
This week, the index closed under 18000, where it struggled for three weeks before breaking out last week. It turns out the breakout was false.
At 17554 lies the 50-day, coinciding with the daily lower Bollinger band at 17538. This is a must-save for the bulls.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 19.1k, down 3.7k.
Small-cap bulls’ mettle is being tested. Last Friday’s session high of 2116 set a two-year high, which also completed a measured-move target of a 1700-1900 range breakout on December 13th. The tape has weakened since.
This week, the Russell 2000 declined 2.1 percent to 2039. But before that on both Thursday and Friday, horizontal support at 2000 drew bids, with the small cap index touching 2017 and 2019 respectively. A likely breach of this support opens the door toward a breakout retest at 1900.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 6.2k, up 3.1k.
Dollar bulls are in a mood to once again go after 103-104, which goes back to December 2016. This week, the US Dollar Index rallied 0.4 percent to 103.06, tagging 103.31 on Tuesday.
Earlier, it hit 104.88 on February 14th and retreated, bottoming at 102.30 last Friday.
Immediately ahead, the 50- and 200-day at 103.41 and 103.52 respectively can act as a magnet.
VIX: Currently net short 49.1k, up 3.2k.
Yet again, a rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81 was touched and left intact. The volatility index tagged 13.42 Thursday, piercing through the 50-day (13.79) intraday but was saved on time, ending the session at 14.40.
Come Friday, the 200-day (14.71) was reclaimed intraday but was pushed under by close, ending the week at 14.41, down 0.33 points for the week. It was one of those rare weeks when both VIX and the S&P 500 went hand in hand.
So, VIX is trapped between the 50- and 200-day, with the former rising and the latter flattish. In the current setup, it is only a matter of time before the 50-day approaches the 200-day from underneath.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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