S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 16, 2024

S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 511709 and is trading up about 7.28% for the year from last year's settlement of 476983. Presently, this market has been rising for 4 months going into March suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 518926 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 485352. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 511106.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 511454 and overhead resistance forming above at 512466. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 4th at 518926, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 19 weeks reaching a high during the week of March 4th at 505682. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 1.890% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 410378 as it has fallen back reaching only 9627 which still remains -97.6% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 4th has exceeded the previous high of 479330 made back during the week of December 25th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 410378 made the week of October 23rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 417150 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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