S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 16, 2024

NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 1597317 and is trading up about 6.40% for the year from last year's settlement of 1501135. At present, this market has been rising for 4 months going into March suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 1644970 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 1520888. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 1609192.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 1597804 and support forming below at 1586924. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 4th at 1644970, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 19 weeks reaching a high during the week of March 4th at 1586263. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 3.184% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 1254386 as it has fallen back reaching only 23720 which still remains -98.1% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 4th has exceeded the previous high of 1515007 made back during the week of December 25th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 1254386 made the week of October 23rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 1555144. Additional support is to be found at 1470623. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1486003 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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