Alternative Path

[gdl]

If my scenario plays out, we should see 10 year note from 4.2% to over 7%. Thats HUGE! Dollar around 103 to 110. From Trump as the front runner to climate change that needs no drastic fixes and sacrifice to a new paradigm where inflation has been defeated to a Pandemic that was no big deal till it actually killed ONE person on our soil. We have the greatest ability to deceive ourselves and do so in mass and completely.

For the very same reason "I" gave a year ago that stated this economy will plow thru the spike rate hikes and adjust. Everyone was sure it would create a recession and therefore the FED was late in lowering rates. Now that they have been completely wrong, they STILL can't understand why. Simple. The consumer has never been in control as they have been these past 2 years. They dictate and demand higher perks and wages. The cycle has been slow to develop but once it has WATCH OUT! It completes the cycle of ever higher inflation as costs rise to compensate for wage and perk growth. All the street sees is the ONE-SIDED benefit. Sustained spending with no recession in sight.

China has been a basket case till now. It looks as if they are about to break out form their self-inflicted mess. Once their consumer starts spending the INFLATION FACTOR surges.