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Friday, March 15, 2024 9:37:18 AM
Ides, Schmides – March Drawdowns <2% Rather Bullish
By: Almanac Trader | March 15, 2024
While our 2024 outlook has remained decidedly bullish since our December “2024 Forecast: More New All-Time Highs Anticipated,” we’ve warned to “Beware the Ides of March.” That this overbought market is due for a pullback. That stuff happens in March, especially in election years (think 1980 Hunt Bros, 2000 Dotcom Bubble Pop and 2020 Covid Crash).
But what does it mean if this AI-driven bull powers ahead through March without a hitch? Well, it’s bullish, that’s what. Gains beget gains and when macro forces overpower weak seasonality, those forces often gather momentum when the seasonal period ends.
While there is still time left for March’s history of volatility to kick in, especially during notoriously treacherous week after Triple Witching, should the market escape the usual March retreat that would support continued robust bullish market action for the rest of 2024. When March’s drawdown is <2% the Best Six Months November-April are up 95.7% of the time, average gain 11.4%; Worst Six Months are not bad, up 69.6% of the time, 3.5% average; rest of the year is up 87% of the time, average 9.3%; and the full year is up 91.3% of the time with an average gain of 15.7%.
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DiscoverGold
By: Almanac Trader | March 15, 2024
While our 2024 outlook has remained decidedly bullish since our December “2024 Forecast: More New All-Time Highs Anticipated,” we’ve warned to “Beware the Ides of March.” That this overbought market is due for a pullback. That stuff happens in March, especially in election years (think 1980 Hunt Bros, 2000 Dotcom Bubble Pop and 2020 Covid Crash).
But what does it mean if this AI-driven bull powers ahead through March without a hitch? Well, it’s bullish, that’s what. Gains beget gains and when macro forces overpower weak seasonality, those forces often gather momentum when the seasonal period ends.
While there is still time left for March’s history of volatility to kick in, especially during notoriously treacherous week after Triple Witching, should the market escape the usual March retreat that would support continued robust bullish market action for the rest of 2024. When March’s drawdown is <2% the Best Six Months November-April are up 95.7% of the time, average gain 11.4%; Worst Six Months are not bad, up 69.6% of the time, 3.5% average; rest of the year is up 87% of the time, average 9.3%; and the full year is up 91.3% of the time with an average gain of 15.7%.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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