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Saturday, March 09, 2024 9:29:35 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 9, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 204.4k, down 19.8k.
This could prove to be an important reversal. Intraday Friday, the S&P 500 was up as much as 0.6 percent but only to reverse and end the session down 0.7 percent. On the weekly, a spinning top formed, with a high of 5189 and a low of 5057, closing down 0.3 percent to 5124. This was only the third down week in 19. From last October’s low through Friday’s high, the large cap index rallied 26 percent.
If this week’s indecision candle gets confirmed, more down weeks lie ahead. Given how overbought the overall conditions are, weakness looks probable in the weeks ahead.
Nearest support lies at 5050s.
Non-commercials are staying put with their bearish bias, with net shorts just north of 200,000 contracts for six weeks in a row.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 635, down 9.6k.
Non-commercials have been net long since mid-August last year. This week, they cut their holdings to merely 635 contracts, with a 157-week high of 39,251 contracts as of January 30th.
By intraday Friday, tech bulls were sitting pretty with the Nasdaq 100 on pace to rally 0.6 percent for the week; by the time the session closed, things looked a lot different with the index having reversed hard to close the week down 1.6 percent.
If there is any consolation for the bulls, it is that the tech-heavy index closed at 18018 – at/just above horizontal support at 18000. Prior to last week’s breakout, the index had been stopped at that level since February 9th.
That said, odds favor 18000 gets breached soon. Nvidia (NVDA), which has been a go-to stock for the bulls, reversed big on Friday, with a session high of $974 and a close of $875, forming a bearish engulfing candle and contributing to the weekly shooting star.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 22.8k, up 4.6k.
Friday’s session high of 2116 set a two-year high but this also completed a measured-move target of a 1700-1900 range breakout on December 13th. The Russell 2000 closed the week up 0.3 percent to 2079 but also formed a spinning top on the weekly.
The small cap index closed right at 2070s horizontal support. A likely breach opens the door to 2000.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 3.1k, up 1k.
The US dollar index fell in all five sessions this week; in fact, it has now fallen for six sessions in a row. This was the third weekly loss in succession, with this week down a solid 1.1 percent to 102.69.
Prior to this, the index hit 104.88 on February 14th and retreated, having bottomed at 100.32 last December. A rising trend line from that low was breached three weeks ago.
This week’s action also represents dollar bulls’ inability to reclaim 103-104, which goes back to December 2016.
On the weekly, there is plenty of room for the index to continue lower.
VIX: Currently net short 46k, up 5.3k.
A rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81 remains intact. The 50-day is now slightly rising, with the 200-day flattish. Volatility bulls had an opportunity this week to push through horizontal resistance at 15 but could not quite pull it off, although the index rose as high as 15.53 intraday Friday but only to close at 14.74, up 1.63 points.
On the weekly, the RSI at 51.50 poked its head out of the median. This has not happened since late October when stocks bottomed. This raises the odds that the RSI continues higher in the sessions/weeks ahead. In this scenario, it is all but certain VIX will rally.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | March 9, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 204.4k, down 19.8k.
This could prove to be an important reversal. Intraday Friday, the S&P 500 was up as much as 0.6 percent but only to reverse and end the session down 0.7 percent. On the weekly, a spinning top formed, with a high of 5189 and a low of 5057, closing down 0.3 percent to 5124. This was only the third down week in 19. From last October’s low through Friday’s high, the large cap index rallied 26 percent.
If this week’s indecision candle gets confirmed, more down weeks lie ahead. Given how overbought the overall conditions are, weakness looks probable in the weeks ahead.
Nearest support lies at 5050s.
Non-commercials are staying put with their bearish bias, with net shorts just north of 200,000 contracts for six weeks in a row.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 635, down 9.6k.
Non-commercials have been net long since mid-August last year. This week, they cut their holdings to merely 635 contracts, with a 157-week high of 39,251 contracts as of January 30th.
By intraday Friday, tech bulls were sitting pretty with the Nasdaq 100 on pace to rally 0.6 percent for the week; by the time the session closed, things looked a lot different with the index having reversed hard to close the week down 1.6 percent.
If there is any consolation for the bulls, it is that the tech-heavy index closed at 18018 – at/just above horizontal support at 18000. Prior to last week’s breakout, the index had been stopped at that level since February 9th.
That said, odds favor 18000 gets breached soon. Nvidia (NVDA), which has been a go-to stock for the bulls, reversed big on Friday, with a session high of $974 and a close of $875, forming a bearish engulfing candle and contributing to the weekly shooting star.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 22.8k, up 4.6k.
Friday’s session high of 2116 set a two-year high but this also completed a measured-move target of a 1700-1900 range breakout on December 13th. The Russell 2000 closed the week up 0.3 percent to 2079 but also formed a spinning top on the weekly.
The small cap index closed right at 2070s horizontal support. A likely breach opens the door to 2000.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 3.1k, up 1k.
The US dollar index fell in all five sessions this week; in fact, it has now fallen for six sessions in a row. This was the third weekly loss in succession, with this week down a solid 1.1 percent to 102.69.
Prior to this, the index hit 104.88 on February 14th and retreated, having bottomed at 100.32 last December. A rising trend line from that low was breached three weeks ago.
This week’s action also represents dollar bulls’ inability to reclaim 103-104, which goes back to December 2016.
On the weekly, there is plenty of room for the index to continue lower.
VIX: Currently net short 46k, up 5.3k.
A rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81 remains intact. The 50-day is now slightly rising, with the 200-day flattish. Volatility bulls had an opportunity this week to push through horizontal resistance at 15 but could not quite pull it off, although the index rose as high as 15.53 intraday Friday but only to close at 14.74, up 1.63 points.
On the weekly, the RSI at 51.50 poked its head out of the median. This has not happened since late October when stocks bottomed. This raises the odds that the RSI continues higher in the sessions/weeks ahead. In this scenario, it is all but certain VIX will rally.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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