S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 9, 2024

This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside warning that a further decline is possible. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 511848. Therefore, the closing below the previous low creates an outside reversal to the downside which was a very sharp swing of 1.38%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side. Immediately, the market remains bearish on the momentum indicator yet still positive on our short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.

During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 506350 settling at 515736. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 512106 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 512369 implying the market is still basing sustaining above the last low for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 510946. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 511750 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 502583 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 512106
Previous... 506350
Tomorrow... 510946

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 508069 and overhead resistance forming above at 512718. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 4th at 518926, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 518926 to 505682. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 518926 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 518926. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 510232 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 417150 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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