S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 9, 2024

This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened quite strong above the previous session's high 1630902 reaching 1644970 intradaylower making it an outside reversal to the downside warning that a further decline is possible. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 1605015. Therefore, the closing below the previous low creates an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 2.37%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side. We have elected 2 Bearish Reversals from the cyclical high established on 01/29.

Currently, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.

During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 1584147 settling at 1627338. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 1604446 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 1601096. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 1605950 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 1570744 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 1604446
Previous... 1584147
Tomorrow... 1601096

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 1604610 and overhead resistance forming above at 1619906. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 4th at 1644970, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 1644970 to 1586263. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 1644970 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 1473112 and 1616634. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 1644970. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 1596636 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1486003 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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