Alternative Path

[gdl]

*** This post must be reviewed in July. 2024 ***

Chart observation: 21 week top, a favorite Fibonacci timeframe is within 2 weeks from today. Most likely a corrective move since the whole structure aligns with July 2024 as the more dramatic reversal period. Assuming JULY is the top we should have a rollercoaster ride between July and October. That implies sharp drop and equally sharp rebound. Double top perhaps?

I will be reviewing this post over and over again between now and July to determine if this scenario is still valid. Just one scenario that I currently see that fits with my absurd notion we are entering the super mega top of all tops. The setup today is PERFECT! Market has been begging for a rate cut for a year now and gleefully happy they were wrong in assuming profits would suffer till then. Instead, the profit picture keeps getting stronger. The assumption however is that the FED will lower rates soon to continue the gravy train ride. If we remain strong and stagflation returns it would be the worse forward-looking outcome the street can expect, and profits will be slashed dramatically. Inflation is MY obsession on the mechanism that derails the market. It can be a slew of other scenarios.