X,
I have made a few changes to the spreadsheet and I will send you the latest version. Some did not like the way I maintained the 6.2% cost of goods sold in all years. I changed that number to 20%, then 25%, then 30% and kept it at 30% in the out years. However, I had decreased the ASP of the 800G by 20% per year as a way to reflect the change in product mix from 100% material sales (which will continue to be 6.2%) to a combination of PIC sales (much higher cost of goods sold) and royalties (almost no cost of goods sold). As noted many times, the hyperscalers want to commoditize the transceivers to $1/gbps. ($800/800G transceiver). I started at $800 and decreased it to $377 by 2030. Since that is not really mix related, I changed the initial revenue per transceiver to 75% of the $800 and the price erosion to 15% per year instead of 20%. Another nugget of information that I found in the 10-K was the indefinite tax loss carryforward number of $79,710,000. I had been just using the accumulated deficit number. In other words, the first $79.7 million in earnings will be tax free instead of the $120 million I had been using. These changes reduced the EPS numbers by a significant amount. However, one must remember that the top line unit sales numbers are for only two products out of many and reflect the obtainable sales given the resources available as of May 2023. Unit sales in 2027 were projected to be 742,000 back in May. Those numbers could quadruple with the addition of a large foundry. When that happens, the spreadsheet will be adjusted. Actually, shortly after that happens, the company should get coverage by Wall Street.
