Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[rayovac812]

and therein lies the problem since CNS isn’t one of the buckets in the published EMA stats.

That isn't a problem at all, in point of fact. It does not change the facts. Blarcamesine has made it beyond the first filter. That is why institutions are taking more notice. It does not matter that CNS isn't "one of the buckets." It is in a bucket all its own, for which the EU has communicated the infrastructure and maintenance difficulties with available treatments. Further 2-73 makes dramatic improvements in that it not only does not accelerate brain volume loss, but turns it completely around.

The possible outcomes could be 0, 33, 66 or 100% for failure or approval.

The fact is that they are all heaped into the 85/15 percent numbers. It isn't broken down into categories, as you seem to understand. Those numbers do not care about any way you want to break it down further.

Then add to that it is a new substance eg. A2-73, which is harder to gain approval for than a drug already approved in some other indication.

Again, that does not matter. It is still in the 85/15 statistic. It isn't that I don't understand what you are saying, if it is or is not already approved, it is still in the 85/15 pie. They like what they have seen, enough to put this new substance there. You are over complicating its meaning. For every exception you can come up with, there is a counter benefit for this new substance. The numbers do not care either way, and do not change the probabilities.