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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 2, 2024

The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 1.76%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 12 days. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 3.00% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 21289, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Our Stochastics are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 20532.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 26th at 20971, which was up 2 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 20971 to 20334. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 26th reaching 20971 has exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 21523. After a thirteen month rally from the previous low of 19879, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for thirteen months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 19964 reaching 20470.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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