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Sunday, March 03, 2024 8:53:21 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 2, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 224.2k, up 5.7k.
The last time the weekly RSI at 76.82 was as overbought was January 2020, when the S&P 500 then came under slight pressure but only to rally anew to subsequently peak in February, followed by a five-week, 35.4-percent drubbing. The Covid-19 virus was the catalyst back then for the sell-off. For lack of a catalyst, the current frenzy can go on. But the kind of giddy exuberance as is seen today always ends.
The large cap index is up north of 25 percent from last October’s lows. It is up in 16 of 18 weeks. Caution is warranted. Yet, the monthly RSI at 67.33 is yet to hit 70, which the bulls must be eyeing – at least.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 10.2k, down 15.3k.
One more roadblock bit the dust. The Nasdaq 100 had been stopped at 18000 since February 9th. Friday, the tech-heavy index rallied 1.4 percent to score yet another breakout, albeit mini. For the week, it jumped two percent. This was the 16th up week in 18. From last October’s lows, it is up an insane 30.4 percent – and up 75.6 percent from October 2022. Unreal!
On Friday last week, Nvidia (NVDA) backed off after tagging $824, dropping to $771 this Thursday. By Friday, bulls were testing last week’s high, with the stock closing at $823. This is setting up as yet another opportunity for the stock to push higher. Rightly or wrongly, this has become a go-to stock for now and will help the overall market should it break out.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 18.2k, down 6k.
The Russell 2000 had a strong week – up three percent to 2076 – but it is yet to convincingly take out the December 27th high of 2072. Back then, the small cap index stopped at that price after a two-month rally that began at 1634 on October 27th.
Small-cap bulls have an opportunity to at least go attack 2100, which is a measured-move target following a 200-point – between 1900 and 1700 – range breakout on December 13th.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 2.1k, up 537.
The US dollar index suffered a back-to-back down week, but only nominally this week, down 0.1 percent to 103.80. This follows a weekly spinning top two weeks ago and a shooting star before that. Last week’s could be a hanging man, and this week’s is a doji.
The point is, the chart points to a lot of indecision. Understandably so, as the index has hovered around 103-104, which goes back to December 2016, for several weeks now. Post-Fed pivot on December 13th, it sliced through that horizontal support. It has made a return trip to that level, but reclaiming it is proving difficult for dollar bulls. Odds favor the bears for now.
VIX: Currently net short 40.7k, up 1.6k.
VIX this week gave back 0.29 points to 13.11 – ever so close to a rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81; this gets breached at 13. Right here and now, odds favor the bears – volatility bears, that is.
The current lack of momentum for the bulls is highlighted by the fact that the weekly RSI is turning lower at the median.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | March 2, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 224.2k, up 5.7k.
The last time the weekly RSI at 76.82 was as overbought was January 2020, when the S&P 500 then came under slight pressure but only to rally anew to subsequently peak in February, followed by a five-week, 35.4-percent drubbing. The Covid-19 virus was the catalyst back then for the sell-off. For lack of a catalyst, the current frenzy can go on. But the kind of giddy exuberance as is seen today always ends.
The large cap index is up north of 25 percent from last October’s lows. It is up in 16 of 18 weeks. Caution is warranted. Yet, the monthly RSI at 67.33 is yet to hit 70, which the bulls must be eyeing – at least.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 10.2k, down 15.3k.
One more roadblock bit the dust. The Nasdaq 100 had been stopped at 18000 since February 9th. Friday, the tech-heavy index rallied 1.4 percent to score yet another breakout, albeit mini. For the week, it jumped two percent. This was the 16th up week in 18. From last October’s lows, it is up an insane 30.4 percent – and up 75.6 percent from October 2022. Unreal!
On Friday last week, Nvidia (NVDA) backed off after tagging $824, dropping to $771 this Thursday. By Friday, bulls were testing last week’s high, with the stock closing at $823. This is setting up as yet another opportunity for the stock to push higher. Rightly or wrongly, this has become a go-to stock for now and will help the overall market should it break out.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 18.2k, down 6k.
The Russell 2000 had a strong week – up three percent to 2076 – but it is yet to convincingly take out the December 27th high of 2072. Back then, the small cap index stopped at that price after a two-month rally that began at 1634 on October 27th.
Small-cap bulls have an opportunity to at least go attack 2100, which is a measured-move target following a 200-point – between 1900 and 1700 – range breakout on December 13th.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 2.1k, up 537.
The US dollar index suffered a back-to-back down week, but only nominally this week, down 0.1 percent to 103.80. This follows a weekly spinning top two weeks ago and a shooting star before that. Last week’s could be a hanging man, and this week’s is a doji.
The point is, the chart points to a lot of indecision. Understandably so, as the index has hovered around 103-104, which goes back to December 2016, for several weeks now. Post-Fed pivot on December 13th, it sliced through that horizontal support. It has made a return trip to that level, but reclaiming it is proving difficult for dollar bulls. Odds favor the bears for now.
VIX: Currently net short 40.7k, up 1.6k.
VIX this week gave back 0.29 points to 13.11 – ever so close to a rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81; this gets breached at 13. Right here and now, odds favor the bears – volatility bears, that is.
The current lack of momentum for the bulls is highlighted by the fact that the weekly RSI is turning lower at the median.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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