S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 2, 2024

This market continues to make new historical highs. The last critical cyclical low was Thu. Oct. 26, 2023, which was 91 trading sessions ago. The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high by 0.98%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 40 days.

Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.32% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 1649100, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 1630720 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 1609660 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place. Our Stochastics are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 1605490.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 26th at 1630224, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 1630224 to 1592472. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 1630224 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 1630224. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 1607573 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1486003 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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