S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX): Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 29, 2024

S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 506976 and is trading up about 6.28% for the year from last year's settlement of 476983. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 503883 and overhead resistance forming above at 509439. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 19th at 511106, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 511106 to 494600. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 511106 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 511106. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 497961 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 10 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 423850 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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