S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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DJIA and S&P 500 Down 15 of Last 19 on February’s Last Day
By: Almanac Trader | February 28, 2024



Before the market can close the books on February, it still must contend with its historically weak last trading day. Since 1996, the S&P 500 has declined 20 times in 28 years on the last day of February. DJIA and NASDAQ have been just as bearish. Average losses on the last day range from –0.48% by DJIA to –0.39% from NASDAQ. The best gain on the day for the major averages was in 2000 while the worst decline was in 2008.

In the leap years since 1950, DJIA and S&P 500 still lean bearish. DJIA has been down nine times in thirteen occurrences and S&P 500 has declined eight times. Average performance is –0.07% for DJIA and –0.06% for S&P 500. NASDAQ is slightly better in leap years, up five of nine, but down four of the last five. NASDAQ’s average performance is a meager +0.01%.

More recently weakness appears to have only been intensifying as DJIA and S&P 500 have been down nine straight and 11 of the last 12. NASDAQ has tried to buck this bearish trend with three gains in the last four years. Should February’s last day see declines again this year, it could be a solid setup for the historically bullish first trading day of March.

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