Oh no....I have gone over this many times. The only issue are ratchet warrants or anti dilution clauses. The anti dilution clauses just need to be adjusted to the most recent raise below threshold. I can get within a deviation of plus/minus 6% of the amount easily as long as I have a six month history minimal. It's very easy once you use a formula for turns.
All based on volume. They all typically work with the same formula..and adjust:
ie 10% of volume ...but I always noticed good ones running @ 15% and lower and bad players running higher...but for the most part they don't get greedy.
People think that lenders just dump it..they don't. They play off the volume and turn their inventory(shares) into it. Just the opposite Janice....it's easy to know how much is left. You have to know the coupon(discount), interest rate, and amount of debt to be converted. Then all you need is a study on volume. If the weekly volume is one billion shares, then the conversion should be 15% of that or 150,000,000 shares sold into the market. Using a longer time frame/frequency tightens up your numbers..a year is best. The net discount plays an import role and usually becomes a second conversion multiplier after the first one is applied.
Most make it complicated and just guess..and say dilution must be over. Then I chime in and crush their hopes...lol..lol. I've always loved formulas and numbers and have used this for like 20 years. You just take a simple formula based on past history..adjust it... then apply it. It's proven :)
AI
