Sayona Mining Ltd (SYAXF)

[TradingCharts]

Michael Langford
• 1st
Executive Director at Airguide International
12h •

Agree with, "Unsustainably Low Lithium Prices Set the Stage for the Next Supply Crunch" - will this lead to another price spike ? Yes, it will, as history yet again repeats (as it has done so with bulk commodities and base metals) - worth reading:

https://lnkd.in/gDiwUv9u

I would also add, that while the low spot price has an impact on current producers expanding or continuing operations, it is more the forward curve that disincentivizes new project development. It is the combination of low spot and lower future prices that causes wild swings in commodity prices as supply fails to keep up with demand.

To be fair, these wild swings in commodity prices is also why I love commodities.

Why do analysts get the forward curve so wrong?

Analysts essentially take at face value what companies state with little understanding of geopolitics / logistics / mine engineering understanding. As a result anything stated to come online is 100% guaranteed (in real life 1% likely) at and when the company states. These views are then priced into the forward curve disincentivizing new project development.

Looking forward to the second half of 2024 for #lithium prices.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7165572862286712832/