Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

[DiscoverGold]

NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 17, 2024

The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high. Currently, the market is trading above one of our three internal momentum indicators warning there is at least some underlying support forming. Nevertheless, on our indicating ranges, the market still remains a partial bearish position yet there is showing underlying support but it is trading strongly higher up some 1.26% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 20426, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 20440 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 20066 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 20343 and support forming below at 20173. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 17 weeks reaching a high during the week of January 29th at 20377. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a sharp move of 4.166% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 18235 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -75.1% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of January 29th reaching 20832 failed to exceed the previous high of 20982 made back during the week of December 25th in 2023. That rally amounted to only five weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 20040. Additional support is to be found at 20173. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

DiscoverGold