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Sunday, 02/18/2024 2:55:24 PM

Sunday, February 18, 2024 2:55:24 PM

Post# of 195867
Every data center (regardless of how big it is) will be upgrading their pluggable transceivers over the next 5 years. The upgraded transceivers will be 800g or 1600g. Few people would dispute this prediction.

I am going to step out on the ledge and say that it makes no sense for a data center to select a variety of transceiver vendors to upgrade a single data center. One vendor will get the order. We know there can be over a million modulators in a single data center.

It is no surprise to see LightCounting and other research firms predicting the transceiver market will reach $100 billion by 2030. During the 2023 ASM presentation, Lebby predicted LW would get 15% of the 800g market and 25% of the 1600g market in 2030. I don’t understand how that reconciles to being ubiquitous, but nevertheless, it is a very big opportunity!

There is no way I am going to sit this one out! Some will choose not to invest until the earnings start ramping up. There will be plenty of investment firms who will initiate a strong buy rating over the coming years at prices much higher than today. In today’s lingo it is called a journey!
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