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Sunday, February 18, 2024 12:22:10 PM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 17, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 215.8k, down 17.2k.
Post-CPI, equity bears had an opportunity this week to wrest control of short-term momentum, but the bulls would not let them (more on this here). The week began with Monday’s shooting-star reversal in which the S&P 500 ticked 5048 and retreated. This was followed by Tuesday’s gap-down, dropping as low as 4920 – just above the 20-day at the time – and the weakness was bought. By Thursday, the gap was filled, with Friday tagging 5039 but reversing lower to end the week down 0.4 percent to 5006.
This was the first down week in six – and the second in 16. This is an opening for the bears. The large cap index has remained overbought for a while now, but a genuine unwinding of these conditions is yet to begin. Shorter-term averages are still rising, which the bulls will try to defend for sure. Their mettle will be genuinely tested when they will be defending breakout retest at 4810s. On January 19th, the S&P 500 pushed through the January 2022 high of 4819.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 32.1k, down 812.
Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 this week printed a new all-time high but only to then reverse to end the week lower. The tech-heavy index tagged 18041 intraday Monday but finished the week down 1.5 percent to 17686. This was the first down week in six – and the second in 16.
Monday’s intraday reversal also came at the daily upper Bollinger band; the lower bound lies at 17185, with the 50-day just underneath at 17007. This is the risk tech bulls face for now.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 24.5k, up 4.5k.
The Russell 2000 did indeed rally toward the December 27th high of 2072 but small-cap bulls were unable to cling on to it. On Thursday, the index touched 2063 intraday; by Friday’s close, it reached 2033, up 1.1 percent for the week.
Earlier on December 13th, the small cap index broke out of a 200-point range between 1900 and 1700, which had been in place since January last year. A measured-move target of the breakout would translate to 2100.
It is possible the Russell 2000 once again goes after 2060s-2070s in the sessions ahead – even 2100 in the best of circumstances – but rallying past the resistance will prove difficult. If anything, 4Q earnings are coming in weaker than expected (more on this here).
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 2k, up 463.
The US dollar index was merely up 0.2 percent this week, but this was enough for a seventh consecutive up week. It bottomed at 100.32 on December 28th.
Earlier, the index peaked on October 3rd at 107.05 and began to really come under pressure early November. Post-Fed pivot on December 13th, it sliced through horizontal support at 103-104. It has made a return trip to that level.
This week, the index closed at 104.18. Odds favor it weakens in the weeks ahead. The most recent weekly candles – a spinning top this week and a shooting star last week – suggest sellers are beginning to come out of the woodwork.
VIX: Currently net short 51k, up 2k.
The weekly RSI closed this week at 49.16. For a while now, momentum has struggled to rally past the median. Even if that happens, there is immense resistance at the low-60s.
That said, volatility bulls are looking at a decent opportunity to rally here.
Coming into this week, VIX has had a streak of higher lows since December 12th when it tagged 11.81 intraday. This week, in the wake of Tuesday’s CPI, the volatility index surged to 17.94 intraday but only to then leave behind a long upper wick to close the session at 15.85. By the end of the week, it closed at 14.24.
The weekly in particular looks ready to firm up, with a bullish MACD crossover this week.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | February 17, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 215.8k, down 17.2k.
Post-CPI, equity bears had an opportunity this week to wrest control of short-term momentum, but the bulls would not let them (more on this here). The week began with Monday’s shooting-star reversal in which the S&P 500 ticked 5048 and retreated. This was followed by Tuesday’s gap-down, dropping as low as 4920 – just above the 20-day at the time – and the weakness was bought. By Thursday, the gap was filled, with Friday tagging 5039 but reversing lower to end the week down 0.4 percent to 5006.
This was the first down week in six – and the second in 16. This is an opening for the bears. The large cap index has remained overbought for a while now, but a genuine unwinding of these conditions is yet to begin. Shorter-term averages are still rising, which the bulls will try to defend for sure. Their mettle will be genuinely tested when they will be defending breakout retest at 4810s. On January 19th, the S&P 500 pushed through the January 2022 high of 4819.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 32.1k, down 812.
Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 this week printed a new all-time high but only to then reverse to end the week lower. The tech-heavy index tagged 18041 intraday Monday but finished the week down 1.5 percent to 17686. This was the first down week in six – and the second in 16.
Monday’s intraday reversal also came at the daily upper Bollinger band; the lower bound lies at 17185, with the 50-day just underneath at 17007. This is the risk tech bulls face for now.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 24.5k, up 4.5k.
The Russell 2000 did indeed rally toward the December 27th high of 2072 but small-cap bulls were unable to cling on to it. On Thursday, the index touched 2063 intraday; by Friday’s close, it reached 2033, up 1.1 percent for the week.
Earlier on December 13th, the small cap index broke out of a 200-point range between 1900 and 1700, which had been in place since January last year. A measured-move target of the breakout would translate to 2100.
It is possible the Russell 2000 once again goes after 2060s-2070s in the sessions ahead – even 2100 in the best of circumstances – but rallying past the resistance will prove difficult. If anything, 4Q earnings are coming in weaker than expected (more on this here).
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 2k, up 463.
The US dollar index was merely up 0.2 percent this week, but this was enough for a seventh consecutive up week. It bottomed at 100.32 on December 28th.
Earlier, the index peaked on October 3rd at 107.05 and began to really come under pressure early November. Post-Fed pivot on December 13th, it sliced through horizontal support at 103-104. It has made a return trip to that level.
This week, the index closed at 104.18. Odds favor it weakens in the weeks ahead. The most recent weekly candles – a spinning top this week and a shooting star last week – suggest sellers are beginning to come out of the woodwork.
VIX: Currently net short 51k, up 2k.
The weekly RSI closed this week at 49.16. For a while now, momentum has struggled to rally past the median. Even if that happens, there is immense resistance at the low-60s.
That said, volatility bulls are looking at a decent opportunity to rally here.
Coming into this week, VIX has had a streak of higher lows since December 12th when it tagged 11.81 intraday. This week, in the wake of Tuesday’s CPI, the volatility index surged to 17.94 intraday but only to then leave behind a long upper wick to close the session at 15.85. By the end of the week, it closed at 14.24.
The weekly in particular looks ready to firm up, with a bullish MACD crossover this week.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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