S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 17, 2024

NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 1577565 and is trading up about 5.09% for the year from last year's settlement of 1501135. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Factually, this market has been rising for 3 months going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 1608007 while it is still trading above last month's high of 1563058.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been in a bearish trend since the high moving into the low in 2022 for a declining trend during that year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 1565275 and overhead resistance forming above at 1591787. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 12th at 1608007, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 1608007 to 1555144. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 1608007 made 0 week ago. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 12th reaching 1608007 has exceeded the previous high of 1515007 made back during the week of December 25th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 10 months since the low established back in March 2023.

The market is trading some 0.92% percent above the last high 1563058 from which we did originally obtain one sell signal from that event established during January. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 1316160 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well.

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