I see what you're saying, smitty ok, so what I need to say, If I'm going to bother making analysis comments, is to mention what I think the odds are for a direction... when I mention odds are 50/50 that price could drop 60 cents or jump 60, it's because that's what the current price point and chart pattern is showing me, at the moment. Well, let's take today, now, as the next example. The small but hopeful rally that went from 5.30 pivot low, got pushed up yesterday to 6.00 and then painted end of day to 6.14. I said yesterday, I'm watching for resistance target zone 6.00 to 6.30, and the pullback could even start from yesterday's peak. I said 6.17, ( in case we got a small pop at today's open. ) So it was a Head's Up warning. Today plunged down , very ugly. And now tests support critical for any bullish momentum. ( 5.65-5.45 area).
Now, I'm watching for a shallow bounce to retest the 5.80 area and see if it gets hammered there and sent down again. Or rolls over a bit slower for a day, and then bleeds down. To lower lows and lower highs. This Rollercoaster trading game can be like this All year long... until we get good news.
My bias now is still looking downward to 5... and into the 4's. I felt I might be proved wrong yesterday, watching the rally. I feel not so wrong now. BUT... watching the price action still important, here at critical support, IF it holds here, could begin another rally effort. It just has to be watched. This is not a trade trigger time for me. This price at 5.55 area is a Balance point, that remains uncertain. From here watch the 5.80 resistance area for selling pressure. Watch to see if it has great force like what today had. That would be a Big clue for future downward momentum, into the 4's. And sets a tone for the whole year. Spending the next 6 months watching sellers trying to create the lowest Bottom they can... before good news comes. When will we get good news is the most important question now.
