Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Eventual Anavex Prophylaxis of Alzheimer’s

This [the ensuing ability to detect Alzheimer’s before symptoms occur] is, of course, great news for Anavex if Falconer's prediction of 2-73 or 3-71 as prophylactics can be proved.

Of course, Anavex naysayers will promptly point out that “proving” Alzheimer’s prophylaxis would be an expensive, daunting, lengthy process.

To prove the ability of either of the Anavex molecules, Anavex 2-73 or Anavex 3-71, to prevent the onset of Alzheimer’s would require a clinical trial. Many dozens, perhaps hundreds of late middle-aged people would have to be enrolled. About half would receive a real Anavex drug. The other half, the placebo cohort, would take a pill that looks exactly like the Anavex drugs. The trial would be double-blinded. Neither the patients taking the placebo pill nor those taking the real drugs would know. Everyone, including attending physicians, is told that everyone is taking the real drug. Only a locked-up computer program, with undisclosed patient identifications “knows.”

Then, the trial would have to run for 10 or 20 years. The average age of trial participants would be in the range of 50 to 60, or maybe 60 to 70. As the trial runs, over those many years, the numbers getting Alzheimer’s is recorded. At the end, the trial is un-blinded; the computer program is unlocked and everyone gets to learn who was on the real drugs and who was taking a starch pill.

Then, the stat-sig geniuses work their arcane statistical magic. P-values are properly calculated. Of course, the P-values of those in the placebo cohort will reveal that even they, taking what were really colored starch pills, showed a delayed or reduced onset of Alzheimer’s symptoms. Sugar or starch pills are real medicines, at least in the hopeful minds of those taking them, believing they were real drugs. The placebo effect.

But the P-values of the real-drug cohort will be even better. I contend that the Anavex sigma-1 receptor protein agonists (activators) will prove to be authentic, safe, and effective prophylactics for Alzheimer’s, with clinical metrics far better than the placebo patients.

But all of that, at the earliest, would be discovered at least 10 years from now; more likely 20 years out — if such a trial were to be actually conducted. Not likely. Too expensive, for too long a period.

So, Anavex sigma-1 receptor agonist Alzheimer’s prophylaxis in humans will have to be discovered and proven by some other means. To begin with, the drug(s) will be prescribed for people who have well-characterized, real cases of Alzheimer’s. It will be incidentally discovered that the earlier the drugs are prescribed, the quicker, stronger, and more enduring are the therapeutic results. It comes to be understood that for best results the drugs must be prescribed at the earliest indication of Alzheimer’s symptoms.

Common reason then dictates that the drugs should be administered to people whose prodromal tests for Alzheimer’s (before any symptoms) show that those persons are destined to get the disease.

Then, after a year or two of prodromal treatments, the taking of the Anavex drugs before any Alzheimer’s symptoms appear, results will show an extremely high therapeutic success rate. Health insurance companies and government health care programs will realize the economic advantages of dosing everyone who tests positive for the eventual onset of the disease — even before they have any gross or obvious symptoms.

With that, millions will be spared the expenses and discomforts of Alzheimer’s. The drugs will be taken before Alzheimer’s symptoms ever appear. Anavex prophylaxis. A major medical triumph.

Someday, Anavex prophylaxis for Alzheimer’s disease.