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Gold Price Forecast: Downward Pressure Persists
By: Bruce Powers | February 9, 2024

• Gold’s downward pressure persists as it tests crucial support levels, with potential for further decline below recent lows.

Downward pressure on gold remains as it once again tests support at the lower boundary line of a small symmetrical triangle. Today’s low was at 2,020.28, only slightly higher than Thursday’s 2,2020.15 low. That puts gold in a precarious position, sitting right on a support zone. Following the 2,002-swing low in mid-January gold eventually attempted to move higher.

Last Thursday it reached a 20-Day high. However, that advance quickly got shot down the next day as supply increased. It is on track to close Friday back below the 50-Day MA (orange). The 50-Day line has helped define dynamic support since gold rallied above the line in mid-October.



Bearish Signal on Drop Below 2,015

A bearish signal will be triggered on a drop below this week’s low of 2,015. That would show a breakdown from recent consolidation and put gold in a position to test lower prices, below the recent 2,002 swing low. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement remains at 1,998. Nevertheless, a more significant price zone is down around 1,979 and 1,973. An initial target for a declining ABCD pattern ends at 1,979 and the 1,973-price area is marked by the 50% retracement of the larger uptrend and a prior swing low from December.

Breakdown Could Test the 200-Day MA at 1,966

Potential support around the 200-Day MA is not much lower than the December swing low, at 1,966. Therefore, it seems likely it would be tested again as support if it is approached. Since gold rallied back above the 200-Day line in October, it has only had one successful test of the 200-Day line as support in November. A subsequent test of the 50-Day MA as support in December showed momentum increasing for the developing uptrend. Subsequent tests of the 50-Day line have been happening the past several weeks and the results leave the trend suspect.

Bullish Signal Above 2,045

If gold continues to hold above recent support and moves higher, the first bullish signal occurs on a rally above this week’s high of 2,045. Given the uncertainty lately, a daily close above that price level will be needed to confirm strength unless there is a clear sharp rally that takes gold well above 2,045. Further up it encounters potential resistance around the 2,088-swing high from late-December.

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