Thursday, February 08, 2024 12:30:42 PM
This is one of the big overhangs in the stock that allows shorts to hold their positions.
Would be nice to see some large insider buys in the coming months and then follow that up with news of Daxxify aesthetic gaining significant sales traction by Q2 and news that the CD training/launch goes according to plan and neurologists get formally trained by May/June and revenues in CD start to trickle in by Q3 and materially contribute to revenue by Q4.
Emannow: the $75 rebates we just got are allowing for significant savings and helping to get the treatment price down significantly.
For example: I charge 25% less per unit of Daxxify at $9/unit than Botox at $12/unit. My Daxi Lite treatment is 1.25U Daxi to 1 unit of Botox and typically this dose is slightly stronger than Botox, kicks in quicker, and lasts just slightly longer. A typical client that gets 40 units of Botox pays $480 and usually has a $20 Alle coupon so leaves paying around $460, they transition to Daxi and get 50Units at $9 = $450 minus the $75 rebate = $375. So Botox $460 vs Daxi at $375. A savings of $85 over Botox and some 20% cheaper to the patient. If I were to do the full strength 2U Daxi to 1U Botox the client would pay 80 units x $9/unit daxi minus rebate of $75 = $645 (40% greater price than Botox treatment but typically lasts 40 to 75% longer than Botox). I am no longer doing full strength Daxi for most of my clients as I found that it was either too strong a dose and past the sweet part of the dose/response curve (where doing more units adds no significant duration gain), and we tend to see more compensatory muscle recruitment when we use too much NT in the frontalis or lateral canthal lines which doesn't have as good of an aesthetic outcome.
FWIW: My current dosing prediction is the sweet spot for Daxi will be a ratio of 1.25U to 1.65U of Daxi to each unit of Botox and that this dose will end up costing patients between 10% less than Botox to 30% more than Botox and will typically last 10% to 50% longer than Botox while making injectors 30 to 50% more profit per injection when compared to Botox. Historically, this improvement in price/performance for the patient, and profit per treatment to the injector has led to rapid and significant market share gains. The rapid adoption phase hits once the product gets around 10% market share (which would be around $55M a quarter in Daxi sales) and is consistent with most hockey stick adoption graphs.
In the above example: patient that gets 40 units of Botox pays $480 and usually has a $20 Alle coupon so leaves paying around $460, they transition to Daxi and get 50Units at $9 = $450 minus the $75 rebate = $375. So Botox $460 vs Daxi at $375. A savings of $85 over Botox and some 20% cheaper to the patient.
Injector profit:
Daxi: $450 minus cost of Daxi at $2.75/unit x 50 units = $313 (26% more profit per injection over Botox)
Botox: $480 minus cost of Botox at $5.80/unit x 40 units = $248
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