Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Doc328]

Actually, I hate to say it, but none of the three drugs -- donepezil, lecanemab, or blarcamesine -- seem better than marginally clinically effective.

We agree on that. They are all mediocre. The main difference is that lecanemab and donepezil are more consistently mediocre. If A273 has another trial at 72 weeks and has a similar CDR-SB with slightly better s.e.m. due to larger n, then they will get approved for AD. My 1% is that A273 is approved via AA in US or standard MAA in EU based on the single trial. If a second trial is performed with non-nuanced significantly beneficial results, then boi's 85% might be a good estimate (in 2027 or 2028).

couple other points in response to your last post
As far as believing 12 months can be extrapolated to 18 months - be cautious. As an exercise, look at the 3rd graph (mild AD donepezil) from my previous post #450654 and extrapolate out to 18 months. Is donepezil then a wonder drug?

The ADCS-ADL directly correlates to caregiver burden as the caregiver is actually completing the scale. CDR indirectly correlates as the physician is getting info from the patient ina structured interview. My mom would have told the doctor that she was no trouble at all (my dad was a good mensch)