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Saturday, February 03, 2024 10:12:15 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 3, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 226k, up 36.5k.
Another up week! Four in a row; it was the 13th up week in 14. Until Wednesday’s FOMC meeting-induced selling, the S&P 500 was down 0.9 percent for the week. Then it rallied 2.3 percent in the remaining two sessions to reverse the week higher 1.4 percent.
All in all, breadth was narrow, with the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day down 10.2 percentage points w/w to 66.4 percent. The bulls will take this regardless. The large cap index posted yet another intraday high of 4975, closing the week at 4959.
The S&P 500 has been rallying since late October last year when it bottomed at 4104. It is up north of 21 percent. Even some ardent bulls are saying, ‘this is crazy!’ The latest move higher came on January 19th when the index busted through 4800, which had held it down since late December, which also meant the January 2022 high of 4819 was eclipsed.
In the meantime, Investors Intelligence’s bullish percent this week jumped 4.8 percentage points w/w to 57.7 percent. While it can be argued that sentiment is yet to hit 60 percent, the fact remains that this week’s reading reached the highest since mid-July 2021. There is a limit to how much a rubber band can be stretched.
In the event of a pullback, short-term support lies at 4900, followed by the important 4800-4810s.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 39.3k, up 6.2k.
Of the five majors reporting this week (more on this here), post-earnings reaction was negative for Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Google owner Alphabet (GOOG) and positive for Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook owner Meta (META). Yet, the Nasdaq 100 ended up 1.3 percent for the week. As a matter of fact, the tech-heavy index was down 1.7 percent until Wednesday, before rallying three percent on Thursday and Friday to end the week at 17643.
Friday’s high of 17682 surpassed last week’s high of 17665 by a tad. More importantly, last week’s spinning top has been followed by a potentially bearish hanging man, which, if true, can signal an important reversal. Fingers crossed!
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 10.5k, up 4.3k.
The Russell 2000 diverged with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in a big way. The small cap index dropped 0.8 percent for the week, while the other two indices were solidly in the plus column.
Ironically, even in the wake of Friday’s robust jobs report, the Russell 2000, which has a larger exposure to the domestic economy than its large-cap peers, failed to rally. For two weeks now, the index has struggled at 2000, and that was true this Tuesday and Wednesday.
Earlier on December 13th, the Russell 2000 broke out of a 200-point range between 1900 and 1700, which had been in place since January last year. A measured-move target of the breakout came to 2100, which was just about hit two weeks later when on December 27th it tagged 2072.
It now increasingly looks like the index once again is headed for a breakout retest at 1900, which occurred mid-January – successfully.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 372, down 1.3k.
The US dollar index, up 0.5 percent this week to 103.78, has now rallied for five straight weeks. it bottomed at 100.32 on December 28th.
Before that, the index peaked on October 3rd at 107.05 and began to really come under pressure early November. Post-Fed pivot on December 13th, it sliced through horizontal support at 103-104. It has now made a return trip to that price point.
Going back all the way to 1999, 103-104 has proven to be crucial for both bulls and bears.
Perhaps importantly, the daily RSI this week turned up right at the median, even as the weekly – at 52.15 – just crossed over from below. Dollar bulls should like this. Momentum will decidedly shift upward once 103-104 gives way.
VIX: Currently net short 54.5k, up 5.3k.
As things stand, the daily could go either way.
The streak of higher lows since December 12th when VIX tagged 11.81 intraday continued this week, with a low of 13.18 on Wednesday and a weekly close of 13.85, up 0.59 points w/w. This was the second week in the last three the volatility index has gone hand in hand with the S&P 500. This in and of itself is rare, as the two tend to go in the opposite direction.
Amidst this, the 50-day (13.07) is no longer dropping, rather flattish to ever so slightly higher, even as the 200-day (15.21) is flattish to slightly lower. Just looking at the way these averages are positioned, and considering the existing pattern of higher lows, VIX is getting ready to meaningfully firm up in the weeks ahead.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | February 3, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 226k, up 36.5k.
Another up week! Four in a row; it was the 13th up week in 14. Until Wednesday’s FOMC meeting-induced selling, the S&P 500 was down 0.9 percent for the week. Then it rallied 2.3 percent in the remaining two sessions to reverse the week higher 1.4 percent.
All in all, breadth was narrow, with the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day down 10.2 percentage points w/w to 66.4 percent. The bulls will take this regardless. The large cap index posted yet another intraday high of 4975, closing the week at 4959.
The S&P 500 has been rallying since late October last year when it bottomed at 4104. It is up north of 21 percent. Even some ardent bulls are saying, ‘this is crazy!’ The latest move higher came on January 19th when the index busted through 4800, which had held it down since late December, which also meant the January 2022 high of 4819 was eclipsed.
In the meantime, Investors Intelligence’s bullish percent this week jumped 4.8 percentage points w/w to 57.7 percent. While it can be argued that sentiment is yet to hit 60 percent, the fact remains that this week’s reading reached the highest since mid-July 2021. There is a limit to how much a rubber band can be stretched.
In the event of a pullback, short-term support lies at 4900, followed by the important 4800-4810s.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 39.3k, up 6.2k.
Of the five majors reporting this week (more on this here), post-earnings reaction was negative for Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Google owner Alphabet (GOOG) and positive for Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook owner Meta (META). Yet, the Nasdaq 100 ended up 1.3 percent for the week. As a matter of fact, the tech-heavy index was down 1.7 percent until Wednesday, before rallying three percent on Thursday and Friday to end the week at 17643.
Friday’s high of 17682 surpassed last week’s high of 17665 by a tad. More importantly, last week’s spinning top has been followed by a potentially bearish hanging man, which, if true, can signal an important reversal. Fingers crossed!
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 10.5k, up 4.3k.
The Russell 2000 diverged with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in a big way. The small cap index dropped 0.8 percent for the week, while the other two indices were solidly in the plus column.
Ironically, even in the wake of Friday’s robust jobs report, the Russell 2000, which has a larger exposure to the domestic economy than its large-cap peers, failed to rally. For two weeks now, the index has struggled at 2000, and that was true this Tuesday and Wednesday.
Earlier on December 13th, the Russell 2000 broke out of a 200-point range between 1900 and 1700, which had been in place since January last year. A measured-move target of the breakout came to 2100, which was just about hit two weeks later when on December 27th it tagged 2072.
It now increasingly looks like the index once again is headed for a breakout retest at 1900, which occurred mid-January – successfully.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 372, down 1.3k.
The US dollar index, up 0.5 percent this week to 103.78, has now rallied for five straight weeks. it bottomed at 100.32 on December 28th.
Before that, the index peaked on October 3rd at 107.05 and began to really come under pressure early November. Post-Fed pivot on December 13th, it sliced through horizontal support at 103-104. It has now made a return trip to that price point.
Going back all the way to 1999, 103-104 has proven to be crucial for both bulls and bears.
Perhaps importantly, the daily RSI this week turned up right at the median, even as the weekly – at 52.15 – just crossed over from below. Dollar bulls should like this. Momentum will decidedly shift upward once 103-104 gives way.
VIX: Currently net short 54.5k, up 5.3k.
As things stand, the daily could go either way.
The streak of higher lows since December 12th when VIX tagged 11.81 intraday continued this week, with a low of 13.18 on Wednesday and a weekly close of 13.85, up 0.59 points w/w. This was the second week in the last three the volatility index has gone hand in hand with the S&P 500. This in and of itself is rare, as the two tend to go in the opposite direction.
Amidst this, the 50-day (13.07) is no longer dropping, rather flattish to ever so slightly higher, even as the 200-day (15.21) is flattish to slightly lower. Just looking at the way these averages are positioned, and considering the existing pattern of higher lows, VIX is getting ready to meaningfully firm up in the weeks ahead.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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