I can understand how recent events creates more uncertainty which can lead to doubt. I get selling shares as a response. What I always fail to understand is why those who sell remain attached to message boards of companies they no longer own? I guess some of us have more free time than others and choose to spend it differently than me, so I struggle to make sense of it all.
That said, there are two likely explanations for pivoting to A371:
1. Blarcamesine is, at best, an average drug with mediocre prospects for approval. This is not uncommon in neurobiology and Alzheimer's is littered with drugs that performed well enough to warrant a P3 trial but didn't make it to the finish line. The company is hedging its bet and is looking to see if A371 is worth exploring because Blarcamesine is not the answer.
2. Blarcamesine is not a wonder drug, but it's probably good enough to be approved given the lack of acceptable alternatives, and that's probably good enough to become an immensely profitable placeholder until something better comes along. Even skeptics like Doc328 agree that Blarcamesine will probably be prescribed if physicians have that option.
With the recent uptick interest in Muscarinic, Sigma-1 and precision medicine, pivoting to A371 is either a value-add proposition or it's a desperate Hail Mary. If a weaker competitor sold for $14 billion recently, I'd like to know what A-371 is worth (if anything). Promising preliminary prophylactic data and P2 data and a P3 pipeline for Blarcamesine that has a puncher's chance of approval could be worth $10 billion or more, and Dr. Missling appears to be moving more toward a buyout than a partnership.
There's not much more to be done with A273. The EMA process is moving forward and in a year or so we'll have more clarity there. Europe approval would put pressure on the United States, too -- it's already happing with Cytisinicline. And Rett's best hope for approval is for the foundations to lobby the FDA and demand the drug become available commercially, or else another trial is in order and Anavex seems to prefer to spend time and money on the more profitable A371 instead.
So there you go. Maybe it's something to be worried about or maybe you're going to regret selling shares if Dr. Missling is strategizing for a max buyout offer, which would necessitate more A371 pipeline data.
