Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[soma2022]

It took Apple 8 years to achieve sales of 250M phone units a year (out of a total of just over 1B phones sold annually). The iphone is considered to be a blockbuster product. Why did apple "FAIL" in their launch (less market share than Revance in their first year). They achieved less than 2% global phone unit market share after year 2....pathetic!! What novice invested in Apple in 2007 at $6 a share with such pathetic unit iphone growth? Apple also had a huge DTC budget behind them while Revance has done no DTC marketing. Furthermore, Apple currently has 20 to 25% market share of the global handset market and that has stayed relatively flat the past 10 years; but their share price has continued to do well despite no further market share gains.

The first 12 months of a commercial drug launch is generally shorted by Hedge funds. We need the "short the launch" crowd to cover and I suspect that day is fast approaching. Growth rates become clear once we see 1 to 2 years of Q/Q growth, and being that the commercial launch was in Q2 2023, we will have our first real Y/Y quarterly growth number in Q2 2024 and we will get a much more accurate growth trajectory after seeing Y/Y quarterly growth numbers over 3 to 6 quarters into mid to late 2025.

Let's hope the recent changes and improved messaging help to accelerate sales growth in the coming quarters.