Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Joseph_K]

Thanks, blu_1. I guess I just absorbed that, to me, Doc's estimate was bizarrely low. He knows a whole lot more about the field than I know, but I think he gives too little weight to the safety profile, ease and lack of MRIs, etc. for administration, and possible breadth of treatable patients compared to the SOC; the reduction of brain shrinkage; and the social/medical need/desire for a drug that helps.

Doc, I have a question for you: If the ADCS-ADL p-value for difference of the means had been, hypothetically, <0.05, what would be your percentage estimate of blarcamesine's chance of approval? And what would it be if that condition were met and additionally the trial had had 1000 subjects and ran for 60 months? And if still below, say, 50% or even 80%, why?

(I ought to add that I believe Doc's 5% estimate relates not to approval of blarcamesine generally but to blarcamesine based on the P2b/3.)