It’s 100% pump. It would be illegal for management to provide select investors early access to specific information that could be described like that.
The company will need more funds ASAP after this raise is complete, so it makes sense that Phase 2 (or is it 4…) of financing the company will occur in the near term.
Let’s think this through.
I looked at the June 2023 shareholder meeting presentation that outlined 2023 and 2024 product release plans. Also looked at the November 6 investor presentation that had a slide of its products and associated customers.
The only remaining “unknown”, or yet-to-be-announced customer, is for the 100G LR4 product. The June release plan schedule shows the 100G LR4 TxRx as a Q3 and Q4 2023 release. So a bit delayed. All of the other module-related products that were on the schedule were separated Tx or Rx engines. Announcing completion of either/or is not a significant revenue/funding event.
From a module standpoint, IMO the only possible ‘significant’ announcement could be the first volume order of 100G engines. But, I don’t think this is it. That wouldn’t mean much to POET in terms of $$$ due to the SPX JV and also that wouldn’t get the needed cash in the coffers immediately anyway.
For 800G, the Rx engine was slated to be complete Q3 2023 and the Tx engine slated to be complete Q4…and then the complete module Q4 2024 and Luxshare as the customer. Besides this, POET has stated they are going to be their own module maker for 800G+. I don’t think any announcement on this product would be a funding event in the near term unless they're pivoting again and giving someone exclusive rights for a cash payment.
The next possibility is the first large order of StarLight to Celestial AI. CAI purchased the first batch for sampling in April 2023. The June schedule shows StarLight Quad as being complete and StarLight Octal as a Q4 2023 release. Production was estimated to start the second half of 2024. But again…even if it is a large order…what cash hits POET’s account up front?
POET management has mentioned selling a portion of the SPX JV to get cash so that’s an option. That would not be a positive though.
They have also mentioned forming a new JV with a non-China partner. That would be the most ideal announcement. But again…it would need cash up front paid to POET so I’m not sure how that would be structured. The SPX JV was extremely dilutive to future earning potential of POET, so ideally it is not the same structure but just a different continent. An announcement like that might sound good at first.
The poster says this is a “reveal”. What is unknown? I don’t think anything is in terms of products or customers (besides the one for 100G).
Whatever is coming…hopefully it allows management to get their backs off the wall and some restructuring takes place.
