Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Steady_T]

Let me see if I can make it clear what I was trying to point out. First I agree with what you are saying. It is better to be in the group making application than not. That is pretty obvious. I think that Anavex has a pretty strong case for approval. I make that judgement based on the trial data, the current SOC. Some agree with that, others do not.

Bio pointed out that ultimately Anavex will succeed or fail in its application. That is a binary event. Is it a 50% chance when viewed that way? Of course not. Other factors are involved like the safety of the drug, the efficacy, soc etc.

My point is that based ONLY on the 85% success rate that doesn't tell you which of the applications will be in the 85% or the 15%. Group statistics have little predictive power for a single member of the group.

We know that a fair coin will be heads 50% of the time and tails 50% of the time. That doesn't tell you what the next coin flip will be. Even if the coin was weighted so that it was heads 85% of the time and 15% of the time it is tails, that still doesn't tell you what the next coin flip will be.