Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Taking Longer....

If 2-73 is stuck here, without approvals, although we fortunately have adequate funding to continue, our share price will at best, maintain its price, but potentially could suffer/suffer significantly. Your thoughts?

For many (at least on this board), AVXL is seen as a get rich quick equity. Tremendous game-changing science, that will transform the treatment and prevent any number of CNS (central nervous system) diseases, and others.

But, as everyone has seen, commercialization of any of the Anavex molecules has been painfully slow and indeterminate. Personally, five or six years ago I thought that 2023 would be Anavex's come-out year. I was wrong.

When will it be? I'm no longer making predictions, either to myself or to message board readers. I still believe, based on the company's transforming and proprietary sigma-1 receptor activation science, Anavex Life Sciences Corp is destined to be a major global pharmaceutical. But that certainly didn't happen in 2023, and won't happen in 2024. But sooner or later (Ok, later), Anavex will gain approval somewhere in the world to sell at least one of its drugs; in time, probably several. When the amorphous, conceptual "market" sees that, the AVXL share price will ascend, never to retreat.

There are millions of AVXL shares held in short positions; in the belief that Anavex will fail, and its share price will plummet; yielding big gains for the owners of short positions. A few others have accumulated gigantic AVXL positions, of tens to hundreds of thousands of shares, anticipating great wealth when Anavex can sell a drug. But most who monitor the postings on this board have small or moderate AVXL positions, or none at all --- merely being entertained by the diversity and novelty of the messages (such as this one).

So, what's to actually happen? That's for each reader to decide for himself. So far, the shorts haven't relented. In fact, nothing, price-wise, has changed much at all. AVXL didn't get to $50 or $60, nor did it slide to $4. Over the years, at a nice low average cost basis, I've accumulated a modest AVXL position; one that I intend to hold until the share price drops to my average cost basis level. Should that happen, I'll liquidate and owe no capital gains taxes. My few thousand dollars in my position will not have produced a penny. But I understood this possibility from the start --- used only small amounts of discretionary dollars to buy my AVXLs. If Anavex fails (I don't think it will) my life will be unaffected. If it succeeds (as I believe it eventually will do), my beneficiaries, my wife and children, will benefit wonderfully. I'm not a stock trader. Buy; hold. In a few years, I'm hoping to receive dividends from Anavex Life Sciences Corp.

But with the apparent failure of blarcamesine for Rett, how could Anavex succeed? I await the publication of the peer-reviewed article in a major science journal, which will bring respected light to the topic. And, of course, blarcamesine may actually gain approval for Rett. Blarcamesine may gain approval for Parkinson's disease dementia and Alzheimer's. Then, Anavex 3-71 is likely to be Anavex's major drug, supplanting blarcamesine, for an even wider number of diseases and conditions. Eventual generalized use of an Anavex sigma-1 receptor agonist as a general disease and aging prophylactic, in perhaps ten years, will be transforming.

Or, none of those projections ever occur, and Anavex Life Sciences Corp dissolves. Each reader will have to decide, and act accordingly. Personally, I still hold to Anavex's eventual success. I'll be standing on the sidelines of this on-going big game and watch. The game clock turns much more slowly than I presumed -- but it still operates. Anavex science is still unique and valid. It's just gonna take longer to be applied and be available. I can wait.