The next 3 to 5 months should be very interesting for NWBO’s stock price. DCVax-L’s 1.7M page MAA was submitted in Dec 2023. Validation for its approval is supported by the JAMA publication, authored by 72 oncologists globally, and “vaccination” in title.
With this tangible timeline, new-money investors will have to react. They can wait and strategize on how best to front-run others, but that game will be complicated by key activities that are likely underway now (maybe previously delayed awaiting MAA).
- KOL/neurooncologists ponder about SOC and off-label applications
- Drug approval applications in US, Germany, Canada
- Discussions with name-brand investors
- Discussions with Big Pharma for combo drug partnerships
- Planning for new DCVax-Direct trials
- Team expansion for commercialization
As the above plays out, the opening to up-list onto a major stock exchange will emerge, so I expect that to be prepared for in parallel too.
Plus, there is an 800-pound gorilla of fundamentals in the room called intrinsic value. It is a bedrock of solid foundation, achievements, and economic potential.
- DCVax-L’s global Phase 3 clinical trial delivered landmark results in one of the most deadly and difficult to treat cancers, GBM brain cancer. Major validation.
- MAA for DCVax-L drug approval submitted.
- Immuno-peptidomics reveal the beauty in DCVax’s mechanism of action: DCs, tumor antigens, and leveraging the entire immune system. A new paradigm in cancer therapy.
- Highly efficacious, personalized, non-toxic, and a more robust immune memory to ultimately cure cancer.
- A mountain of patents, orphan status, 5 years+ survival data, biologic data exclusivities, trade secrets, the purchase of Flaskworks, and etc…
- Built out a full state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Sawston, UK.
And a second 800-pound gorilla that cannot be ignored. The stock price is extremely undervalued relative to its intrinsic value, currently. This creates an even larger gap to fill and will drive FOMO at some point.
- Call it crocodile jaws on a chart (bottom line stock price, upper line intrinsic value, in-between shorts & traders live, a catalyst, and suddenly jaws snap shut)
- Or J-curve, the path on a chart that stock price travels to reach fair value
- Or as I prefer, a reunion of stock price to its long-time separated partner and marathon runner intrinsic value
But there is a third 800-pound gorilla in the room. It is the black box of (TBD) naked shorted NWBO shares that are mark-to-market liabilities on the books of these shorts. This is their personal 3-mile island nuclear plant waiting for a catalyst. But putting all that aside, my only point here is that the short interest is potentially very large and represent another set of major buyers who will eventually compete with other buyers to cover.
This all leads up to my thinking of what I believe will happen in the next 3 to 5 months.
- Convergence: milestone activities, preparing for success
- Gamma: high probability approval creates gamma. As we approach the drug approval date, the rate of acceleration in the “price acceleration" increases.
- Stampede: Everybody is watching everybody else. One catalyst and everybody will want to buy at the same time (new-money buyers, Longs not selling, Shorts covering)
MAA makes this time different.
Bullish
