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Thursday, January 04, 2024 12:46:19 PM
I want to do a little math here. I have seen Doc and a couple of posters say Anavex has now only a one percent chance of success in Europe. As I recall, the EMA accepts about 90 MAAs per year, and its "positive opinion" rate, after taking withdrawn applications into account, at worst, is about 85 percent. (See my post 440099 and my reply to that post.)
The EMA, after the meetings and preliminary look at Anavex's data, has green lit our Centralised Process request. There is now no identifiable regulatory obstacle to our submitting an Alzheimer's MAA, and no identifiable reason for Anavex to fail to submit one. Our chances of receiving a positive opinion should today approach, or stand at, about 85 percent. This number is not an opinion, it is a published and easily determined regulatory fact.
But perhaps there is a statistical one percent chance of success for companies first approaching EMA staff for their preliminary consideration of supporting data. I doubt that, but one percent is not my prediction here. Suppose further Anavex, after the green light, is not yet out of those dark woods and our chances stand now at one percent because we need still to convince EMA staff of our bona fides.
In that case, the EMA staff, which annually reviews about 90 MAAs per year, would, at this stage of the process, have to wade through 85 times that number to find the viable applications -- an absurd and unbelievable 7,650 annual data reviews and a multiple of that number for meetings.
So we know that our one percenters have no stats that back them up. (Nor does Investor, stubbornly stuck at 25 percent no matter the season.) They are not privy to the full AD 2b/3 data, subsequent complete dives into biomarkers, etc., or OLE results. They are not current EMA decision makers. They do not claim to have any such inside information, or experience in conducting EMA reviews. They have their reasons to post that prediction, but since it's not based on facts, they don't explain it. They just state their nonsense as if it's true and hope you fall for it.
Recent AVXL News
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/30/2024 09:20:53 PM
- Anavex Life Sciences Announces Translational Biomarker Data for ANAVEX®2-73 (blarcamesine) in Fragile X Syndrome (Major Cause of Autism) at the 19th NFXF International Fragile X Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/30/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Form S-3 - Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933 • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/29/2024 09:21:49 PM
- Results from Anavex Life Sciences Landmark Phase IIb/III Trial of Blarcamesine Presented at Alzheimer's Association Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/28/2024 09:00:00 PM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 5th Annual Neuro Perspectives Virtual Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 06/20/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/17/2024 11:30:10 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Announces Expansion of Leadership Team • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/22/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/17/2024 10:01:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 2nd BioConnect Investor Conference at NASDAQ • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/14/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Shareholders that lost money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) Urged to Join Class Action - Contact The Gross Law Firm to Learn More • PR Newswire (US) • 05/10/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 08:35:55 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 12:00:30 PM
- Anavex Life Sciences Reports Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results and Provides Business Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/09/2024 11:30:00 AM
- The Gross Law Firm Announces the Filing of a Securities Class Action on Behalf of Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) Shareholders • PR Newswire (US) • 05/07/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Form DEFA14A - Additional definitive proxy soliciting materials and Rule 14(a)(12) material • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2024 10:03:33 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Corporation Sued for Securities Law Violations - Contact The Gross Law Firm Before May 13, 2024 to Discuss Your Rights - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 05/03/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Announce Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results on Thursday, May 9th, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/02/2024 11:30:00 AM
- May 13, 2024 Deadline: Contact The Gross Law Firm to Join Class Action Suit Against AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/26/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Contact The Gross Law Firm by May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join Class Action Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) • PR Newswire (US) • 04/19/2024 09:45:00 AM
- The Gross Law Firm Reminds Shareholders of a Lead Plaintiff Deadline of May 13, 2024 in Anavex Life Sciences Lawsuit - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/16/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Class Action Filed Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) - May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join - Contact The Gross Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 04/12/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the Noble Capital Markets Virtual Healthcare Equity Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/11/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Class Action Filed Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) - May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join - Contact The Gross Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 04/09/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Corporation Class Action: The Gross Law Firm Reminds Anavex Life Sciences Investors of the Pending Class Action Lawsuit with a Lead Plaintiff Deadline of May 13, 2024 - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/05/2024 09:45:00 AM
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