I Was Wrong — By a Factor of 10
Yesterday, in my conjecture that eventually blarcamesine might gain widespread use as a general-health prophylactic, where most people in the developed world would take a small dose to prevent the onset of many common diseases, I noted that the daily cost might be in the range of a single dollar, $1.00. With that price, the cost burden would not be great. Anavex would have annual global sales revenues in the tens to hundreds of billion dollars.
But I was wrong, by a factor of at least 10.
Actually, soon enough, blarcamesine will be replaced with a similar Anavex sigma-1 receptor agonist (activator), Anavex 3-71. It has been used and proven in tests in transgenic murines, lab rodents who have the human genes for CNS diseases inserted in their genomes. And, yes, Anavex 3-71 was therapeutically effective.
But Anavex 3-71 is dosed, administered in microgram amounts, not the milligram amounts used when administering and testing blarcamesine. A microgram, 0.000,001 gram, is one-millionth of a gram; or, 0.001 milligram, a thousandth of a milligram.
Simply, very tiny amounts of Anavex 3-71 are required, compared to blarcamesine; probably not in one-thousandth fractions; more likely in one-hundredth amounts. But, at whatever doses prove effective, they will be far smaller than the milligram dosages of blarcamesine.
The per-kilogram manufacturing costs of both drugs will be essentially equivalent. But ten to a hundred times more doses can be made with the Anavex 3-71. Simply, it works more powerfully, at far lower dosages than blarcamesine. Therefore, dose costs to customers will be lower than for blarcamesine; but with a larger profit margin for Anavex.
With Anavex 3-71, everyone wins; including AVXL shareholders.
