Hundreds of Millions of Blarcamesine Users?
The plausibility of my blarcamesine prophylaxis conjectures ever materializing, understandably, appear to be improbable, at best. At least for the first years of blarcamesine sales, Anavex will be highly profitable by providing effective treatment for the CNS diseases they presently target. For AVXL shareholders, that will be greatly rewording.
But, for several factors I’ll lay out, eventual sales of blarcamesine to hundreds of millions of people in the developed world for the purpose of general health prophylaxis, disease prevention, is not out of question. It could really happen, for these reasons.
First, of course, blarcamesine will have to prove itself to be utterly safe, without obviating adverse events (side effects) when taken chronically, for long, continuing periods. This will be revealed when the drug is used to treat or prevent Alzheimer’s disease, for lengthy, continuing dosing periods.
Finally, of course, a preponderance of evidence must show that the drug is, actually, a safe and effective general-health prophylactic; that when taken in low doses for continuing periods of time various age-related or developmental diseases are prevented or minimized. Such evidence, too, could be derived from people taking the drug for a CNS disease, where it not only stopped or reversed that disease’s progression, but concurrently improved the general health of patients on the drug.
What, then, if such prophylactic dosings cost, say, $10 a day; $3,650 a year? For a family of four, that would be an annual blarcamesine cost of $14,600. Pretty expensive. Only a minority of families would have or would use such funds for a drug that doesn’t treat any disease they presently have; merely prevents diseases often far in the future.
What, however, if a 10mg prophylactic dose of blarcamesine can be sold (and purchased) for $1.00? That’s a yearly cost of $360; a fee health insurance companies would gladly cover, as it would significantly reduce their expenditures used to treat any of the big diseases the drug is preventing.
In all of this, here’s the most important information. Anavex has patents protecting their efficient and effective manufacture of blarcamesine. With those protected chemical synthesis processes, it is very probable that 10mg doses of blarcamesine can be made for pennies on the dose. A small snowflake, or a grain of salt or sand are all typically 1mg. 10mg isn’t much. Unlike other drugs, blarcamesine is not a complex, gigantic molecule. Using Anavex’s patent-protected chemical processes, the drug will be inexpensive to manufacture, perhaps in the realm of a penny a milligram or so.
If these numbers prove to be accurate, blarcamesine sales may eventually bring tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in annual revenues to Anavex Life Sciences Corp. Good health for hundreds of millions. Wonderful dividends for owners of AVXL shares. Let’s watch to see how or if this develops.
