Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 16, 2023

At this time, the NY Gold Futures closed today at 20357. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into December reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 21523 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 19356. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 20572.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during October. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 20316 and overhead resistance forming above at 20504. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 9 weeks reaching a high during the week of December 4th at 20106. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a significant move of 7.638% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 18235 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -75.1% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 21523 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 17526 and 21944. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of December 4th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 20197 made back during the week of October 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of September 18th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 18235 made the week of October 2nd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 20854. After a six month rally from the previous low of 19360, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for six months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in December, this market has held above last month's low of 19356 reaching 19879.

This market is trading beneath that high of May which was 20854 by more than 2 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 18107 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high.

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